SMM Yav tsaus ntuj Comments (Lub Yim Hli 30): Shanghai Nonferrous Hlau Tseem Duab Ntxoo Los Ntawm Looming Rate Hikes
Aug 31, 2022
SHANGHAI, Lub Yim Hli 30 (SMM) - Shanghai nonferrous hlau raug kaw nrog kev poob vim kev ua lag luam tseem tab tom ua duab ntxoo los ntawm looming tus nqi hikes. Tsis tas li ntawd, Rick Rieder, tus thawj coj peev ntawm BlackRock lub ntiaj teb cov nyiaj tau los tas li, tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom hais tias: Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Powell cov lus tsis tau cuam tshuam peb txoj kev ntseeg tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam (FOMC) tuaj yeem nce tus nqi los ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm nws lub Cuaj Hli. 21 kev sib tham.
Shanghai tooj liab poob 1%.
Copper: Cov lag luam feem ntau SHFE 2210 tooj liab tau kaw 1.
Ntawm macro pem hauv ntej: (1) US Fed yuav nce nws cov kev siv zog rau lub lim tiam no, uas txhais tau hais tias nws yuav pib muag tawm ntawm Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag uas nws tau pib sib sau ze li peb xyoos dhau los. Raws li nws cov phiaj xwm tapering, Fed yuav tsa lub kaus mom txhua hli rau ntawm cov nyiaj tsis tau txuas ntxiv dua tshiab thiab cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj rov qab (mbs) vim tias muaj hnub nyoog rau US $ 60 billion thiab US $ 35 billion raws li, thaum siv US $ 326 billion ntawm Treasury bond txoj haujlwm. kom rov ntxiv thaum daim coupon maturities poob qis dua lub kaus mom txhua hli. (2) Rick Rieder, tus thawj coj ua lag luam ntawm BlackRock lub ntiaj teb cov nyiaj tau los tas li, tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom hais tias: Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Powell cov lus tsis tau cuam tshuam peb txoj kev ntseeg tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam (FOMC) tuaj yeem nce nqi los ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm nws lub Cuaj Hli. 21 kev sib tham.
Nyob rau hauv lub khw muag khoom, tus nqi ntawm tus qauv zoo tooj liab nyob ib ncig ntawm 400 yuan / mt nyob rau hauv thaum sawv ntxov kev lag luam, thiab thaum kawg muaj concentrated inflows ntawm imported tooj liab. Cov tub lag luam tsis tau hais ntxiv txog cov nqi them siab ntawm qhov dav SHFE 2209 thiab 2210 kis tau zoo li mus txog rau lub hli kawg, thiab lawv txo cov nqi them kom tau nyiaj ntsuab. Xws li, cov nqi ntawm cov qauv zoo tooj liab nyob ib ncig ntawm 350-360 yuan / mt nyob ib ncig ntawm 10:00 teev sawv ntxov Beijing, nrog qee tus neeg yuav khoom qhia kev txaus siab. Cov nqi them ntxiv tau nqis mus rau 330-350 yuan / mt hauv kev sib tham thib ob.
Aluminium: Qhov kev lag luam feem ntau SHFE 2210 aluminium kaw 3.14 feem pua lossis 595 yuan / mt rau 18,360 yuan / mt, nrog qhib paj poob 3,325 ntau rau 168,330 ntau.
Cov hlau tsis-ferrous tau raug thawb los ntawm qhov muaj peev xwm nce siab. Rau txhuas, cov smelters tau nyob rau hauv txoj kev los rov pib tsim khoom nrog rov qab siv fais fab rau kev lag luam hauv Sichuan xeev. SHEF aluminium rub rov qab los ntawm kev txo cov khoom nruj. Cov neeg ua lag luam yuav tsum saib xyuas kev txhawb nqa nyob ib puag ncig 20-hnub txav nruab nrab.
Lead: Cov kev lag luam feem ntau SHFE 2210 lead tau kaw 0.4 feem pua lossis 60 yuan / mt ntawm 14,920 yuan / mt, nrog qhib paj paj 7,191 ntau rau 60,846 ntau.
Raws li SMM kev tshawb fawb, kev rov qab los ntawm cov hlau lead ingot ntau lawm yuav tsum tau tshaj qhov kev siv nrog lub zog rationing xaus. SMM lead ingot social inventory ntxiv 7,300 mt los ntawm hnub Friday dhau los mus rau 74,400 mt txog hnub Monday Lub Yim Hli 29. Hais txog cov khoom siv raw, ob qho tib si cov nqi yuav khoom ntawm txhuas-acid roj teeb seem los ntawm cov hlau lead smelters thiab TCs ntawm cov hmoov lead concentrate poob, thiab txhuas. cov nqi yuav poob nrog cov nqi smelting poob.
Zinc: Feem ntau cov lag luam SHFE 2210 zinc kaw 1.62 feem pua lossis 410 yuan / mt ntawm 24,840 yuan / mt, nrog qhib paj 3,264 ntau rau 132,271 ntau.
Txawv teb chaws zinc ntau lawm txiav yuav tsum txuas ntxiv txawm tias European natural gas yav tom ntej poob qis tsis ntev los no, raws li tus nqi kiag li tseem nyob rau theem siab, uas ua rau tus nqi smelting ntawm qib siab. Hauv Suav teb, cov smelters hauv Sichuan thiab Hunan tau pib rov pib tsim khoom txij li lub asthiv dhau los nrog huab cua kub poob qis. Qhov kev thov sab, txawm li cas los xij, tseem tsis zoo txawm hais tias qhov cuam tshuam ntawm lub zog rationing yog ploj mus. Thiab kev tuag-casting thiab zinc oxide sectors tseem qeeb.
Tin: Cov lag luam feem ntau SHFE 2210 tin tau kaw 2.67 feem pua lossis 5,320 yuan / mt ntawm 193,950 yuan / mt, nrog qhib paj poob 3,350 ntau rau 34,515 ntau.
Nyob rau hauv lub khw muag khoom, cov smelters tau me ntsis tsis kam ua cov quotes thaum sawv ntxov kev lag luam, thiab tag nrho cov lag luam quotes poob nrog rau cov ntawv cog lus yav tom ntej. Cov nqi them los ntawm cov tub lag luam tau nce me ntsis, thiab kev sib kis ntawm cov npe sib txawv tau nthuav dav rau qee qhov. Lub downstream tau yuav los ntawm kev xav tau nruj, thiab cov khoom lag luam ntim tau poob ntawm cov khoom poob. SHFE warrants cov khoom muag poob 259 mt rau 1,610 mt, qhov tshiab qis hauv peb lub hlis. Cov khoom lag luam tau sau tseg qhov kev poob qis ntawm 524 mt tom qab cov nqi tin tau poob qis, txhawb qhov kev thov los ntawm cov neeg ua si hauv qab. LME tin cov khoom muag poob 30 mt rau 4,410 mt. LME cov khoom lag luam tin tau nce txij lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2021, thiab cov khoom lag luam qib nce mus txog qhov siab tshaj plaws txij li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2020.
Nickel: Kev lag luam feem ntau SHFE 2210 npib tsib xee kaw 3 feem pua lossis 5,100 yuan / mt ntawm 164,960 yuan / mt, nrog qhib paj 948 ntau rau 56,756 ntau.
Ntawm cov khoom lag luam, kev xa khoom ntawm cov nickel ntshiab tau txais txiaj ntsig me ntsis, thiab qhov kev thov luv luv rau nickel briquette los ntawm cov nroj tsuag ntsev tau khaws, yog li kev lis kev cai ntawm nickel briquette tau nce lub lim tiam dhau los. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm NPI, qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov nqi qis NPI tau txhawb cov kev lag luam tsis ntev los no. Ntawm qhov kev thov, raws li SMM kev tshawb fawb, lub tshuab steel nyob rau sab qaum teb Tuam Tshoj tau xaus nws qhov kev kaw kaum-hnub, thiab nws cia siab tias qee qhov kub-dov stainless hlau yuav raug tso tawm lub lim tiam no. Raws li rau cov hlau alloys, cov khoom siv hlau tseem tseem yuav los ntawm kev thov nruj thaum tus nqi poob rau yav tom ntej nag hmo. Cov nqi npib tsib xee yuav nyob twj ywm ntau yam vim tias qhov tsis muaj zog thiab qhov kev cia siab ntawm US Fed cov paj laum nce siab.
[Disclaimer: Cov lus sawv cev thiab cov ntaub ntawv saum toj no yog raws li cov ntaub ntawv lag luam SMM ntseeg tau tias muaj kev ntseeg siab thaum lub sijhawm tau txais nrog rau qhov kev ntsuam xyuas zoo los ntawm pab pawg tshawb fawb SMM, thiab ib qho thiab tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv muab hauv tsab xov xwm no yog siv rau kev siv nkaus xwb. Kab lus no tsis yog ib qho kev pom zoo ncaj qha rau kev nqis peev lossis kev txiav txim siab hauv ib qho twg thiab cov neeg siv khoom yuav tsum ua raws li lawv tus kheej tsis pom zoo thiab txhua qhov kev txiav txim siab los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tsis nyob hauv lub luag haujlwm ntawm SMM.]
