International Consulting Firm Predicts tias Ntiaj teb no hlau ore ntau lawm yuav nce los ntawm 2.3 feem pua txhua xyoo hauv 5 xyoos
Jul 24, 2023
Tsis ntev los no, Fitch lub tuam txhab pab tswv yim, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, tau tshaj tawm cov kev kwv yees hais tias qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm lub ntiaj teb hlau ore ntau lawm yuav tsum yog 2.3 feem pua los ntawm 2023 txog 2027, thiab qhov ntsuas rau tsib xyoos dhau los (2017 txog 2022) yog -0.7 feem pua. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias qhov no yuav txhawb cov hlau ore ntau lawm hauv 2027 los ntawm 372.8 lab tons piv rau 2022. Tib lub sijhawm, lub ntiaj teb kev tsim cov hlau ore yuav nrawm dua.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tau hais tias yav tom ntej kev nce hauv ntiaj teb cov hlau ore yuav yog los ntawm Brazil thiab Australia. Tam sim no, Vale tau tshaj tawm nws txoj kev npaj tsim tawm zoo rau sab nraud. Tib lub sijhawm, BHP, Rio Tinto thiab FMG kuj npaj los nqis peev hauv cov phiaj xwm nthuav dav tshiab. Piv txwv li, txoj haujlwm Iron Choj tau txhawb nqa los ntawm FMG thiab txoj haujlwm Gudai Darri tau txhawb nqa los ntawm Rio Tinto.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm hais tias Tuam Tshoj cov hlau ore ntau lawm yuav nce ntxiv hauv 3-4 xyoo tom ntej. Tam sim no, Tuam Tshoj tab tom siv zog los txhim kho nws tus kheej kom txaus thiab maj mam tawg tawm ntawm nws txoj kev vam khom rau Australian mines. Kev ua haujlwm nquag ntawm "Cornerstone Plan" tau txhawb nqa kev nthuav dav ntawm Suav mining lag luam, thiab tseem ua kom cov txheej txheem ntawm Suav Baowu thiab lwm cov lag luam tsim cov mines txawv teb chaws, xws li Xipo project ntawm Tuam Tshoj Baowu thiab Rio Tinto. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau kwv yees tias cov tuam txhab hauv Suav teb yuav ua qhov tseem ceeb rau kev nqis peev hauv cov mines hlau txawv teb chaws, xws li Simandou hlau mine loj.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kuj tau kwv yees tias qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm lub ntiaj teb hlau ore ntau lawm los ntawm 2027 txog 2032 yuav tsum yog -0.1 feem pua . Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias kev poob qis hauv kev loj hlob ntawm kev tsim khoom tau hais los saum toj no tuaj yeem yog vim muaj qee yam xws li kev kaw cov mines me thiab txo qis ntawm cov nqi hlau hlau, uas tau ua rau cov miners loj txo kev nqis peev hauv cov haujlwm tshiab.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias txij li 2023 txog 2027, Australia cov hlau ore ntau lawm yuav loj hlob ntawm qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm 0.2 feem pua. Nws tau tshaj tawm tias tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov hlau ore hauv Australia yog $ 30 / ton, hauv West Africa nws yog $ 40 / ton rau $ 50 / ton, thiab hauv Suav teb yog $ 90 / ton. Vim Australia nyob rau hauv qab ntawm lub ntiaj teb no hlau ore nqi nkhaus, nws xav tias Australian mining yuav muab ib tug noj qab nyob zoo "tsov chaw" rau lub ntiaj teb no hlau ore nqi poob nyob rau hauv lub xyoo tom ntej.
Brazil cov hlau ore ntau lawm yuav muaj kev loj hlob zoo nyob rau xyoo tom ntej. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tau hais tias qhov no feem ntau yog los ntawm cov nqi tsim khoom thiab kev ua haujlwm tsawg, cov peev txheej txaus, cov peev txheej, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm Tuam Tshoj Steel tuam ntxhab hauv cheeb tsam. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kwv yees tias txij xyoo 2023 txog 2027, Brazil cov hlau ore ntau lawm yuav loj hlob ntawm qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm 3.4 feem pua, nrog rau txhua xyoo ntau lawm nce los ntawm 56.1 lab tons rau 482.9 lab tons. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev, kev loj hlob ntawm Brazil cov hlau ore ntau lawm yuav qeeb, nrog rau qhov kev cia siab nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm 1.2 feem pua ntawm 2027 txog 2032, thiab ntau lawm yuav ncav cuag 507.5 lab tons / xyoo los ntawm 2032.
Tsis tas li ntawd, daim ntawv tshaj tawm kuj tau tshaj tawm tias Gelado hlau mine nyob rau hauv Serra Norte mining cheeb tsam ntawm Vale yuav nthuav nws cov khoom tsim tawm xyoo no; Txoj haujlwm N3 yuav tsum pib hauv 2024; Txoj haujlwm S11D tau nthuav dav ntau lawm hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm lub xyoo nyiaj txiag no, txhawb nqa nws cov hlau ore ntau lawm los ntawm 5.8 feem pua rau-xyoo rau 66.7 lab tons. Nws cia siab tias qhov project yuav nthuav dav ntau lawm los ntawm 30 lab tons hauv ib xyoos.
Hauv kev teb rau qhov cuam tshuam ntawm Is Nrias teb kev hloov pauv ntawm cov hlau ore ntshuam thiab xa tawm cov nqi se xyoo tas los, daim ntawv tshaj tawm hais tias xyoo 2022, txhawm rau ua kom tau raws li qhov xav tau hauv tsev, Is Nrias teb tau nce cov se xa tawm ntawm pellets mus rau 45 feem pua. Hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb qeeb qeeb, qhov kev ntsuas no tau ua rau muaj kev txo qis hauv Is Nrias teb cov hlau ore xa tawm. Thaum Lub Yim Hli 2022, cov hlau ore ntau lawm ntawm Is Nrias teb tus tsim cov hlau loj tshaj plaws, National Mining Development Corporation (NMDC), poob rau nws qhov qis tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv ze li ntawm ob xyoos, uas yog 2.05 lab tons. Raws li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo nyiaj txiag no, cov hlau ore ntau lawm ntawm Indian National Mining Development Company tau loj hlob zoo, nce mus txog 3.51 lab tons hauv lub Plaub Hlis, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 11.4 feem pua. Kev loj hlob ntawm Is Nrias teb cov hlau ore ntau lawm yuav raug txwv los ntawm nws txoj cai xa tawm se ntawm cov qib qis hlau ore blocks thiab nplua. Nyob rau hauv lub xyoo tom ntej, Is Nrias teb cov hlau ore ntau lawm yuav tsum nce, tab sis yog tias Is Nrias teb kho nws txoj cai tariff dua nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv, nws cov ntau lawm kuj tseem yuav cuam tshuam.
